Smart post. I especially appreciate your conclusions, J. Let me add just one thought. You say "if you’re just starting out in any number of trades: AI will take your job." I am thinking choosing to becoming a plumber, a carpenter, tile-setter, heavy equipment operator, electrician landscaper, etc would be safe bets. NEVER out of work, excellent pay, no college debt. Just saying. The world will always need more plumbers...
Very true. But those roles aren’t the driving force of the economy by volume — though service industries and healthcare could be classified on either side.
Ah, yes, I see your point, J. I was not considering the driving force of the economy, but more the viewpoint of a person who was seeking job/income security. Which can, of course, be found in the skilled trades. I find it tragic that industrial arts are left out of school curricula. .
I think it's really the same old problem when considering AI, garbage in garbage out. The assumption when AI is used is that you are getting valuable information. We've probably all heard that a very large percentage of research has been faked. So just like asking any "expert", take it with a grain of of salt and remember that common knowledge is often wrong. Always consider that for anything requiring a conclusion there are always assumptions buried in the calculation.
I agree that it's a powerful tool but it IS just a tool.
I’m not so sure it’s as simple as garbage in/out. But all LLMs have invisible toggles that can mislead people because the data is scraped from everywhere: training material bias (historical inaccuracies, outdated or deliberately false information), data voids (i.e. scarcity of information). The most prominent, the helpful sycophant, is probably the worse because it doesn’t deliberately obfuscate information but suppresses indiscriminately for speed over depth. Think of this as being offered a synopsis for People’s History of the United States (Harold Zinn) and coming away with “things were bad for a while but they got better.”
Exactly. The quality and reliability of information is the issue. It's almost like polling data. Often it comes down to how a question is asked and the specific parameters, for example, can something be scientifically proven or is it a consensus of opinion? When things get down to at what level it's reliable it becomes the ambiguity becomes clearer.
You've articulated everything thats been going through my brain. I work in advertising and the quick adoption of AI tools has been very fast. Everyone fears on being left behind so they dive in. I too have been exploring the tools but find that friction, boredom, and frustration are necessary in not only enjoying the work but also understanding the WHY.
I see valid uses in AI tools to superpower our skills and make us better but to give away ones agency makes no sense.
This whole "AI Boom" has also enlightened me about how much its about the process that makes writing and creating stuff truly fun and rewarding.
I guess one positive thing is we really are getting a sense about how many people loathe their jobs. Haha.
I think with any cultural (or technological) shift that malaise — or excitement — becomes more visible. LLMs might be a 20X multiplier for both.
There definitely are valid use cases as long as we understand it as an overlay and not a replacement for learning/understanding. And it sounds like those skills you already have are being highlighted, which is the best case scenario.
Thanks for reading and telling me about your experience, Nick!
I should've gone into the trades. It'll be a while before an LLM can install a toilet. (Although, I'm sure that, given an appropriate robot body, it would probably try. Or maybe it would just say, "Ew. Plumbing? That's human work.")
Hah! Yes. As an aside, let me say my son is a master plumber. He has friends in England, France, and Italy who would pay his travel expenses, give him a place to live, feed him -- if he would just come and finish their years-long bathroom / kitchen remodels. Europe is desperate for tradesmen!
I took a very different approach to this subject, but the nugget of insight is basically the same.
https://singulardream.substack.com/p/ship-of-fools
Smart post. I especially appreciate your conclusions, J. Let me add just one thought. You say "if you’re just starting out in any number of trades: AI will take your job." I am thinking choosing to becoming a plumber, a carpenter, tile-setter, heavy equipment operator, electrician landscaper, etc would be safe bets. NEVER out of work, excellent pay, no college debt. Just saying. The world will always need more plumbers...
Very true. But those roles aren’t the driving force of the economy by volume — though service industries and healthcare could be classified on either side.
Ah, yes, I see your point, J. I was not considering the driving force of the economy, but more the viewpoint of a person who was seeking job/income security. Which can, of course, be found in the skilled trades. I find it tragic that industrial arts are left out of school curricula. .
Agreed about industrial arts — I loved metal shop and wish I’d taken more “hands on” classes.
I think it's really the same old problem when considering AI, garbage in garbage out. The assumption when AI is used is that you are getting valuable information. We've probably all heard that a very large percentage of research has been faked. So just like asking any "expert", take it with a grain of of salt and remember that common knowledge is often wrong. Always consider that for anything requiring a conclusion there are always assumptions buried in the calculation.
I agree that it's a powerful tool but it IS just a tool.
I’m not so sure it’s as simple as garbage in/out. But all LLMs have invisible toggles that can mislead people because the data is scraped from everywhere: training material bias (historical inaccuracies, outdated or deliberately false information), data voids (i.e. scarcity of information). The most prominent, the helpful sycophant, is probably the worse because it doesn’t deliberately obfuscate information but suppresses indiscriminately for speed over depth. Think of this as being offered a synopsis for People’s History of the United States (Harold Zinn) and coming away with “things were bad for a while but they got better.”
Exactly. The quality and reliability of information is the issue. It's almost like polling data. Often it comes down to how a question is asked and the specific parameters, for example, can something be scientifically proven or is it a consensus of opinion? When things get down to at what level it's reliable it becomes the ambiguity becomes clearer.
Thanks for writing this.
You've articulated everything thats been going through my brain. I work in advertising and the quick adoption of AI tools has been very fast. Everyone fears on being left behind so they dive in. I too have been exploring the tools but find that friction, boredom, and frustration are necessary in not only enjoying the work but also understanding the WHY.
I see valid uses in AI tools to superpower our skills and make us better but to give away ones agency makes no sense.
This whole "AI Boom" has also enlightened me about how much its about the process that makes writing and creating stuff truly fun and rewarding.
I guess one positive thing is we really are getting a sense about how many people loathe their jobs. Haha.
I think with any cultural (or technological) shift that malaise — or excitement — becomes more visible. LLMs might be a 20X multiplier for both.
There definitely are valid use cases as long as we understand it as an overlay and not a replacement for learning/understanding. And it sounds like those skills you already have are being highlighted, which is the best case scenario.
Thanks for reading and telling me about your experience, Nick!
I think they definitely are a multiplier for both. Haha.
I've been way more pessimistic since the arrival of this tech, especially when it comes to the environmental costs.
I should've gone into the trades. It'll be a while before an LLM can install a toilet. (Although, I'm sure that, given an appropriate robot body, it would probably try. Or maybe it would just say, "Ew. Plumbing? That's human work.")
Hah! Yes. As an aside, let me say my son is a master plumber. He has friends in England, France, and Italy who would pay his travel expenses, give him a place to live, feed him -- if he would just come and finish their years-long bathroom / kitchen remodels. Europe is desperate for tradesmen!
I think the latter part feels right: that’s human work.
Or, more aptly: I’m sorry, Dave, I can’t do that.